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Convergence of the U.S.’s Mid-Market and Low-Skill Work Forces

Sunday, August 26th, 2012

As I discussed in my August 2 blog, The Great Recession, especially when combined with the rapid growth in the automation and globalization of jobs, has exacerbated the bifurcation of the U.S. labor force. Those who have traditionally performed mid-skill jobs face the biggest dislocations. Low-skill workers, however, face the most pain.

The Disappearance of Mid-Market Jobs

The vast mid-market, in which millions of moderately skilled high-school and college graduates had made rewarding, life-time careers, is under siege. True, the number of such mid-market jobs will certainly grow when a cyclical recovery really begins to take hold. The problem is that the four big structural trends—automation, globalization, flexible hiring and unpredictable volatility—promise to keep a tight lid on both the pace and the extent of the mid-tier jobs recovery. They will also keep a lid on both the compensation and the security of these jobs.

What will happen to those mid-skill/mid-income blue- and white-collar jobs that form the foundation of great American middle class?

That future is already being played out. Even as the economy begins to recover, globalization (offshoring) and technology (i.e., automation) will continue to eliminate and/or significantly change the type of skills required to perform these increasingly routine, relatively low-discretion jobs. Think, for example of how computer numerical control (CNC) machine tools eliminated the need for millions of assembly line workers and created new demands for computer-literate, numerically-proficient operators.

What happens to the people who have been displaced by these jobs? They must either learn these new skills (for which there are orders of magnitude fewer jobs available), re-train for other functions (often with very mixed success) or compete with millions of other less-skilled workers for much lower-paying low-skill/low-pay non-tradeable service jobs (jobs which must be performed locally and are difficult or impossible to automate).

The same forces are affecting mid-skill/mid-pay office workers. Secretaries and switchboard operators have lost their jobs to automation and accountants, and financial and marketing analysts have had to learn entirely new skills and provide new types of value. Meanwhile, millions of mid-level office jobs, such as accounts payable/receivable, account reconciliation and computer programming have long-since been at least partially automated or moved offshore, to be performed by much lower-cost, and in some cases, better educated workers.

Employees who have traditionally performed these functions can, in theory, be reeducated or retained to perform higher-level functions. In practice, the relatively small number of very higher-skill jobs that are being created are being overwhelmed by the losses in huge, well-paying mid-skill segments, such as construction and manufacturing, and among the ranks of mid-level administrative and supervisory and low-level managerial workers. Meanwhile, efforts to retrain/educate these people for higher-value functions often yield very mixed results.

And, as if these job losses weren’t bad enough, these workers are now joined by millions of government employees and educators who are falling victims to big cuts in government funding.

The Plight of Low-Skill Workers

Meanwhile, growth at the low end of the jobs market has been growing (albeit very slowly), even during the recession. Perpetual high-growth segments, such as healthcare, continue to grow while industries such as retail and hospitality have begun to rehire. The problem is two-fold:

  1. Many such jobs typically offer very low-pay and little job security and
  2. Mid-skill workers and recent college graduates, locked out of traditional markets for mid-range jobs, are now competing with high-school graduates and even drop-outs for these low-skill jobs.

So, while the recession, combined with forces including automation and globalization, are taking a bigger toll on mid-skill jobs than they are on low-skill jobs, it is the least educated workers who are, by far, the biggest losers. If you think the market for new college graduates is grim (and it certainly is), the market for less-educated workers is appalling.

Employment prospects and salary levels fall precipitously as education levels decline. These combine to result in huge disparities in lifetime earnings.

Is higher education the Great American Hope? The answer, as I’ll discuss in my September 30 blog is, yes but………

Posted in Job and Career Opportunities, Skills Requirements, Workforce Trends | No Responses »
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The Economic, Competitive, Social and Political Implications of KPO

Sunday, March 14th, 2010

My last three blogs (The Growth of Knowledge Process Outsourcing, Evalueserve’s KPO Service Offerings, Understanding Evalueserve’s KPO Business) discussed the emergence and rapid growth and evolution of the Knowledge Process Outsourcing (KPO) industry and market. As I discussed, this industry, which was borne of and enabled by the boom in IT Services offshoring, takes the offshoring of services into totally new directions. The most basic of this work extends the IT industry’s experience in outsourcing standardized, structured, rules-based tasks into a number of more broadly defined, less structured and more discretionary functions.

The Evolution of Offshorable Services Jobs

More importantly, just as IT outsourcing progressed up the value chain from ministerial jobs, such as the maintenance of old legacy application into more conceptual work, such as in architecting of distributed Internet-based applications, so too is the outsourcing of a broad range of other “knowledge-based functions”. KPO is rapidly extending the offshoring of knowledge-based services:

  • Beyond jobs that consist of standardized, repeatable processes, are easy to learn and can be readily monitored and tracked (such as application maintenance and call center operator);
  • To those that require analytical (like financial and market analysis), conceptual (like legal research and architectural design) and, in some instances, innovative (scientific research and industrial design) skills. These services are typically less structured and manageable, entail greater discretion and, increasingly, require ongoing coordination with professionals in other countries.

Services Continunium

But to understand the real implications of KPO, you must combine the rapid growth in the type and number of jobs that can be performed offshore, with the:

  • Rapid growth in the number of foreign—and declining number of U.S.—professionals with science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) training;
  • New information technology and communications (ITC) capabilities that allow work to be seamlessly performed and transferred across geographies and time zones; and
  • New management and collaboration practices that permit business processes to be componentized and workers from remote locations to seamless collaborate on complex tasks.

The result, as Princeton University’s Alan Blinder concluded in a 2007 study that was corroborated by an independent Harvard Business School study—between 21% and 42% of U.S. jobs have the potential of being outsourced. (Not that they necessarily will be outsourced, but that they are potentially outsourceable.) And, unlike the case with manufacturing jobs before them, the majority of these new positions are knowledge jobs that typically require college degrees.

Opportunities for U.S. Knowledge Workers

What does the growth and changing nature of knowledge outsourcing in general, and KPO in particular, mean for U.S. knowledge workers? Two things:

  • Regardless of whether Blinder and HBS’s numbers are right, the U.S. will undoubtedly lose millions of traditionally secure white collar jobs to offshore providers over the next decade; and
  • Although Indian providers will continue to source many jobs offshore, even they will be hiring American workers as firms including Evalueserve, Infosys, Wipro and Tata Consulting Services open, acquire and expand delivery centers in the United States.

What does all this mean to current and prospective U.S. knowledge workers? As I have discussed in recent posts, the U.S. will always retain millions of existing knowledge jobs and will continue to produce millions of new ones. The difference is that employers will look for very different types of skills than in the past. Those workers that Thomas Friedman calls “the average practitioners”—those people who perform routine tasks and those that wait for work to be handed to them—are becoming an endangered species.

Knowledge workers that hope to qualify for the secure jobs of the future—both in domestic and offshore firms—will require different sets of skills than those of Friedman’s average practitioners. As discussed in my report IT Companies as Catalysts in Creating the 21st Century Workforce (click here to see an excerpt or  here to request a free copy of the full report), these workers must be able to innovate, analyze and communicate. They must increasingly possess a new set of core skills that include:

  • IT, not necessarily in developing and managing IT environments, but in understanding which IT tools are most applicable to a chosen field and how to apply them to deliver business value;
  • Communications, the combination of writing, speaking, presentation (and optionally others, such as multimedia and video) that will be so essential in selling one’s ideas;
  • Internet (to the extent that such skills will not be innate in new-generation workers), which provides all employees complete access to all the information they need and the social networking tools and techniques that will be increasingly required to find allies, build consensus and effectively sell one’s ideas (both within and outside of their organizations); and
  • Mathematics (particularly analytic techniques and supporting capabilities such as statistics, modeling and simulations) to help workers derive true insight from, and develop innovative solutions based on the huge volumes of digital information that are becoming available to all knowledge workers in all disciplines.

People who possess such skills will produce higher value for their employers (whether domestic or foreign), enjoy higher salaries and better job security and will be in greater demand by other companies. Those that lack such skills will suffer the opposite fate

Posted in 21st Century Careers, Business Trends, Creating the 21st Century Workforce, Economic and Political Forces, Economic Forces, Global Forces-General, Globalization, Immigration and Offshoring, IT Company Strategies, IT Industry and Companies, IT Industry Trends, IT/Business Consulting/Outsourcing, IT/Software-as-a-Service, Job and Career Opportunities, Political Forces, STEM Careers, Technology's Impact on Job Skills | No Responses »
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The Jobs of Today—and Tomorrow

Sunday, February 14th, 2010

I have written extensively about the jobs of tomorrow and the critical role of STEM (science, technology, engineering and math) skills in preparing applicants for these jobs. (See, for example, my recently completed free report, “IT Companies as Catalysts in Creating the 21st Century Workforce.“) As explained in a new CareerCast study, these skills also critical in preparing applicants for the jobs of today—or at least many of the “best jobs”.

“Best Jobs”

What are these “best jobs” and what makes them “the best”? The study, which compiles U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Census Bureau data, evaluates jobs in terms of five criteria:

  1. Stress;
  2. Working environment;
  3. Physical demands;
  4. Income and growth potential; and
  5. Hiring outlook.

While not necessarily the highest skilled (neurosurgeon, corporate M&A lawyer), highest paying (bond trader, hedge fund manager) or most glamorous (movie star, professional athlete), these jobs are available in reasonably high numbers and are available to people with relatively moderate (typically a four-year degree) degree of education.

Just what are these jobs? The top ten are, in descending order: actuary, software engineer, computer systems analyst, biologist, historian, mathematician, paralegal assistant, statistician, accountant and dental hygienist. All but two (historian and paralegal) require some form of specialized STEM education.

Perhaps none of these jobs are quite your cup of tea. Or, perhaps unlike CareerCast, you do not weigh each of the five criteria equally. You may, for example, be motivated primarily by income and advancement potential, or you may actually prefer a physically demanding job.

No worries. There are dozens of other jobs. But be forewarned: 37 of the CareerCast’s 50 “best jobs” (out of a total 200 ranked jobs) require some form of explicit math, science or technology background. Moreover, as I have discussed in previous blogs, a number of the 13 additional jobs (such as historian, sociologist, anthropologist and archeologist) increasingly require specialized IT and math skills, such as in compiling and analyzing huge quantities of information and data.  

Of course, this doesn’t suggest that ALL jobs that are intellectually, emotionally and financially rewarding require STEM educations. You can, for example, become a philosopher (11), attorney (80), author (74), clergyman (96) or artist (104), although most such professions require extensive training or specialized skills. There are also somewhat lower skill jobs. You can be a damn good paralegal (7), medical records technician (20), purchasing agent (40), jeweler (61) or actor (163) with little or no math or science training and few, if any, computer skills. But if you want to find jobs with no specialized training requirements or long apprentices, you generally have to move much further down the CareerCast list into lower-skill, more physical and/or more repetitive jobs such as waitperson (125), bus driver (137), retail salesperson (142) or mail carrier (191). And if you really want to live on the edge (literally and figuratively), you can always become a lumberjack (199) or roustabout (200).

Skills Requirements

But regardless of which type of career you choose, the work environment of the 21st century will not be like that of the 20th century. Jobs will remain scarce for at least the next five years, more positions will become temporary or freelance, and a growing number of jobs will be devalued or disappear as a result of increasingly pervasive globalization of knowledge work and the automation of functions that used to require human discretion and labor.

Success in this new environment will require much more than strong, specialized domain skills (whether STEM-based or not). Traditional left-brain analytical skills will, in fact, become the ante required for success in tomorrow’s jobs. Knowledge workers who hope to capture and retain the best, highest-value and most secure jobs must also complement these capabilities with increasingly large doses of left-brained conceptual and empathic skills. And, with all due respect to technophobes, virtually all high-value knowledge jobs will also require at least basic quantitative, statistical and IT skills. IT, in fact, will increasingly have to become the second language for almost all 21st century knowledge workers.

Posted in 21st Century Careers, Business Trends, Creating the 21st Century Workforce, Economic and Political Forces, Economic Forces, Job and Career Opportunities, Skills Requirements, STEM Careers, Technology's Impact on Job Skills, Workforce Trends | No Responses »
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The Payoffs of Cisco’s Globalization Odyssey

Sunday, January 31st, 2010

In my last blog, I outlined Cisco’s ambitious globalization plans, its plans for establishing Cisco Globalization Center East in Bangalore as a corporate co-headquarters and its longer-term plans for building a network of globalization centers that will not only globally distribute the company’s workforce, but also its management team. This blog looks at some of the challenges Cisco faces in its globalization efforts and how it is addressing them, the opportunities its expanded global presences is creating and some of the lessons that its experiences may provide to other companies.

Challenges and Solutions

Cisco certainly faced many of the same challenges that all companies face when building a major presence in India. It had to navigate the government‘s infamous bureaucracy, compensate for and adjust to the country’s deficient infrastructure and inconsistent education system, and find a way of managing the 12½ hour time zone difference between India and the company’s California headquarters. It also had to adapt to cultural differences between Indian and Western employees. These include the difficulties that many Indian workers have delivering disappointing news and providing candid feedback, their deference to corporate executives and the disappointment and even shame they experience in adapting to the Cisco tradition of lateral organizational moves (versus promotions to higher level jobs and titles).

Cisco, like many other companies establishing an Indian presence, has addressed these traditional challenges. It faced greater challenges, however, from the tricky governance challenges that arose from the combination of two Cisco-specific issues:

  • Its highly matrixed organizational structure and its extensive use of councils and boards (see, for example, the July 2009 McKinsey & Co interview with John Chambers) which is highly dependent on frequent, often spontaneous communication and collaboration among managers and executives from all across the organization; and
  • Its decision to globally distribute its executive and management team, as well as specific functions to India and other countries.

Its first governance challenge was to ensure that all of its employees would accept and adapt to the increasingly central role that the Indian center would play in the organization. This required an immediate, high-profile validation of the role of the Indian organization and the need to incorporating it and its managers and executives into all appropriate decision processes. Cisco built the credibility of the Indian organization in three steps:

  1. Its high-profile promotion and launch of the facility as the greenest and most technologically advanced of all Cisco sites, its role as one of the company’s most important customer/partner demonstration and education centers and its being the home of what will soon be the company’s second largest R&D facility and by the actions of two particularly critical executive sponsors;
  2. The move of EVP Wim Elfrink and 20 other senior executives to Bangalore; and
  3. John Chambers’ ongoing elaboration of the importance of Globalization Center East and his hosting of Cisco’s 2008 company meeting in the complex.

The next challenge was to identify how to maintain, or adapt, the company’s traditional freewheeling, real-time communication and collaboration process when critical members of each team are located halfway around the world, with no shared work hours. Would communications patterns change or would more and more meetings be conducted (and decisions reached) without participation by remote group members?

Cisco’s own technologies, including its Unified Communications solutions, WebEx conferencing and TelePresence videoconferencing systems, certainly helped. But technologies alone are not sufficient to change established processes or corporate cultures.

Cicso began its global communications began in the normal way, trying to schedule meetings at times that were only minimally inconvenient for each party, such as 6:00, 7:00 or 8:00 AM/PM. There were, however, far too many conference calls for far too few time slots. And since there were typically far more participants in the U.S. and Europe than in India and China, calls were increasingly scheduled throughout the night (Indian time) and early Saturday mornings (Friday afternoon in California). India-based executives were getting worn out and were losing sleep and family time. Although Wim Elfrink had a Telepresence system installed in his home, this only moderately reduced the burden. Nor was Cisco prepared to provide this same, very expensive luxury/incursion for all its India-based managers and execs.

The solution? John Chambers ordered that no calls would be held after 11:00 PM in any time zone and that the burden of calls outside of work hours must be spread across geographies, so that everybody would end up making similar compromises.

The Opportunities of Globalization

While the launch of the Bangalore center presented some obstacles that had to be overcome, it also provided Cisco with some important new opportunities. As I discussed in my last blog, the first and the single most important reason for Cisco’s dramatically expanded Indian presence was to accelerate the company’s growth in Asian and other emerging markets. Cisco claims that this investment is already paying off, such as by providing a presence and allowing it to incubate Asian ecosystems that were instrumental in capturing big, strategic accounts. These include Smart Building wins in China, Smart City wins in Saudi Arabia and Smart Education wins in Qatar. (I’ll cover such projects in more depth in a future blog). It is also working on a number of other projects, such as Korea’s Songdo Smart City and Malasian WiMax (with YTL) implementations, that have the potential of creating other huge new global growth opportunities.

Cisco’s commitment to Asia has also allowed the company to extend relationships with current Indian SI partners and to create new joint market initiatives, as with Tata around security and Wipro in addressing Middle Eastern markets.

Establishing the Indian co-headquarters also gave Cisco a powerful new tool in developing a new generation of globally-aware managers and executives. The initial expansion has already contributed to globalizing the traditionally Western-centric corporate culture. Meanwhile, moving Wim Elfrink and other executives to India helped increase Cisco’s visibility into other countries and emphasize the importance the company places on doing business in emerging countries. Of course, it also provided a new high-profile opportunity to gain experience in other geographies. And, as a somewhat unexpected bonus, Cisco is already finding that many employees who transfer to India are more willing to remain in India or transfer to another Cisco emerging country site, than they are to return to San Jose.

The growing role of expats is also a critical tool in spreading the company’s culture to new offices and employees. This was initially done by sending U.S.-based employees to India. India, however, is now emerging as a training ground for Cisco employees in—and the transfer of new technologies and solutions to—other emerging countries, such as the transfer of Smart Grid and Smart Community experts and concepts from India to South Korea.

Leveraging Its Learnings

As I mentioned in my last blog, this is only the first step in Cisco’s plan to transform the company into a fully geographically distributed, global enterprise. Although it entered this expansion without a big, formal central design, Cisco has learned many lessons that will be increasingly institutionalized in future globalization efforts. It is also studying experiences of other global companies, such as Coca-Cola and, especially GE, to help facilitate its learning process.

This will not only help Cisco help itself, it will also help it to help its customers—companies that, like Cisco, recognize the need to decentralize their management structure and globalize their operations. Most companies, however, don’t have the technology, the architectural capabilities or the experience to engineer these transformations themselves. Cisco, in the spirit of its self-defined transformation from “Internet plumber” into “trusted business advisor”, is preparing to help these other companies as well as itself.

Posted in 21st Century Careers, Business Trends, Cisco, Creating the 21st Century Workforce, Globalization, Immigration and Offshoring, IT Company Strategies, IT Industry and Companies, IT Industry Trends, STEM Careers, Technology's Impact on Job Skills, Workforce Trends | No Responses »
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The Globalization of Cisco: Emergence of a Corporate Co-Headquarters

Sunday, January 24th, 2010

Globalization, as I have discussed in a number of recent blogs and reports, is rapidly becoming one of the defining attributes of knowledge work. It is also rapidly becoming one of the defining attributes of dynamic, growing companies.

But what is globalization? What are the attributes of a global company and what does the process of going global mean for a company’s employees?

Before describing what globalization is, let’s first examine what it isn’t. It is not labor arbitrage—the shifting of manufacturing facilities and process-based business functions (such as payables processing and accounting) to less expensive locations. Globalization is much more. It is a deep, sustained corporate commitment to decentralizing the company’s operations, diversifying its markets, distributing its business and management processes, and globalizing the corporate culture.

Consider the example of Cisco, a company that is effectively transforming itself from a U.S.-centric multinational corporation (MNC) into globally integrated enterprise (GIE). True, Cisco is not the first company to go global, nor does it have a huge global footprint, especially when compared with IT services giants such as Accenture or especially IBM. But like most of the company’s ambitions, its globalization ambitions are bold and unconventional.

Going Global

For years, Cisco has sold globally and operated overseas facilities. Yet, it based its corporate management team in the U.S., and made virtually all major corporate decisions there. The company’s plan to transform itself into a truly global company, with a global culture, globally-integrated management process and global growth strategy emerged in late 2006, with the board’s authorization of a plan to open a “second corporate headquarters” in Bangalore India.

This new globalization center is not about labor arbitrage. Cisco neither migrated existing operations, business processes nor functions from the U.S. to India. Although reduced costs are certainly a bonus of its globalization efforts, it created the Bangalore center to support net new corporate capabilities and to address three fundamental corporate goals, to:

  1. Accelerate growth in emerging markets (especially Asian) during a period in which emerging countries promise to grow much more rapidly than traditional developed country markets and to incubate some of the company’s most promising new growth businesses;
  2. Drive new levels of innovation by designing products in/for emerging markets and by exposing the company to new business opportunities and business models; and
  3. Capture increasingly scarce talent in a world where employable labor forces in general, and technically educated workers in particular, are growing much more rapidly in emerging countries than in developed countries.

Why Bangalore? First, Cisco, and a number of the companies it acquired, already had operations in the city. Second, and more importantly, India is a huge market and within 5 hours, one can fly from Bangalore to 70% of the world’s population and most of the world’s most dynamic and rapidly growing economies. Moreover, India has a large and rapidly growing base of well educated, English-speaking talent, some of the world’s best technical universities, and a judicial system that respects intellectual property.

The Roles of Globalization Center East

The center, which opened in 2007, is also one of Cisco’s showcase corporate facilities. It is the greenest building in the company and the first to be totally IP-enabled. It delivers a broad range of video service—including video healthcare—directly to employee desktops and serves as one of the company’s premier customer centers and a showcase for all of its new offerings.

More importantly, the facility, which currently houses 5,000 people, provides a full complement of corporate functions and a rapidly growing percentage of the company’s top executives. This includes large numbers of managers and directors, 14 Vice Presidents and Wim Elfrink, Executive Vice President of Cisco Services and the company’s Chief Globalization Officer.

While this executive contingent certainly includes people responsible for the company’s Indian operations, its overall emerging country growth and the company’s overarching globalization strategy, it also includes executives with broader corporate responsibility. Elfrink, for example, is responsible for the company’s entire services business, which accounts for 20% of Cisco’s total revenues. Other Bangalore-based executives manage global initiatives including Smart Connected Communities, Connected Real Estate and Advanced Services.

Bangalore-based executives are intimately involved in all types of corporate decisions. They sit on virtually all of the company’s councils and boards and sometimes drive initiatives that have only ancillary links to India or emerging countries, including the acquisition of at least one U.S.-based company. Bangalore is also taking the global lead in some of the company’s most promising growth opportunities, such as those around smart buildings, smart cities and smart grid.

Cisco’s 4,500 person Bangalore R&D center also plays an increasingly global role. Roughly 40-45% of its activities focus on designing new or adapting current products and services for emerging country markets, 40-45% on developing leading-edge offerings (including a central role in developing the company’s line of Nexus data center switches) for global markets and only about 10% focus on India-specific offerings.

The Future of a Global Cisco

Although the opening its Globalization Center East center was certainly a critical step in transforming Cisco from an MNC into a GIE, it is only a step. The company plans to grow the center from 5,000 to 10,000 people and to dramatically expand its role in developing new markets and products and in training a new generation of truly global managers and executives. John Chambers, for example, has committed to locating at least 20% of Cisco’s to talent in India by the end of 2010 and to ensuring that center will play a co-equal role in shaping the future of the entire company.

But regardless of how big and important the Indian operation is likely to become, it is only a first step to transform Cisco into a truly global company. It is likely to establish additional global centers in the future. China, meanwhile, will also play an increasingly central role. It is likely to become the company’s primary manufacturing hub and home to market initiatives such as Smart Cities.

Although each center will focus on technologies and growth opportunities of particular concern to regional customers and on global functions and processes to which the region’s talent is best suited, each center is also expected to play a central role in the management of the entire company. Each will house large and growing numbers of corporate (in addition to regional) executives and participate in the geographically distributed business model to which Chambers is committed, and to which he is now piloting in India.

Plans are great. But nothing, especially something as radical and unprecedented as Cisco’s globalization strategy, goes quite according to plan. As I will discuss in my next blog, the company has already learned a number of lessons from its initial efforts—lessons that will be critical not only to Cisco’s next globalization steps, but also in those of other companies.

Posted in 21st Century Careers, Business Trends, Cisco, Creating the 21st Century Workforce, Globalization, Immigration and Offshoring, IT Industry and Companies, IT Industry Trends, Workforce Trends | No Responses »
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IT Companies as Catalysts in Creating the 21st Century Workforce

Monday, January 11th, 2010

The following is a high-level summary of a more detailed report that summarizes the findings of six months of research into the changing nature of U.S. knowledge work and the requirements for creating a generation of knowledge workers who will not just be able compete, but will not be able to add differentiated value in a global knowledge economy. For a free copy of the full report, click here.

We’ve all seen the statistics and the anecdotes surrounding the declining technical skills of American workers. Although unemployment is at record highs, many positions go fulfilled for lack of qualified applicants. U.S. student interest and skills in science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) education is plummeting relative to other those in other countries and the U.S. is making it increasingly difficult—and unattractive—for talented foreign students and professions to enter and remain in this country. U.S. manufacturing workers lack the skills to work in new-generation factories and promising green tech firms are leaving the U.S. in favor of countries with larger markets and more sympathetic governments.

Unfortunately, most signs suggest that things will get worse, before they get better.

IT vendors and service providers that are based in or have operations in the U.S. face particular challenges:

  • They will find it increasingly difficult to find sufficient numbers of graduates with appropriate skills and will either have to implement “remedial” programs or increase their use of offshore talent;
  • If IT vendors/providers will have trouble finding skilled people, customer IT organizations are likely to face desperate skills shortages;
  • A decline in math and IT skills among customer’s business professionals threatens to limit appreciation for, experimentation with, and adoption of new IT capabilities.

But while IT vendors face some of the greatest challenges from a U.S. skills gap, they are also the best positioned of any major type vendor to address the problem. These vendors, after all, created and will continue to create the tools that are revolutionizing work. They are also pioneering many of the organizational and business revolutions that transform the work environment of the future. IT companies, for example, have been among the leaders in transforming, automating and optimizing traditional business processes, in disrupting revenue models of traditional industries and in globalizing knowledge work and business processes that few ever dreamed could go offshore.

It’s only logical. Companies that are this involved in shaping and defining the future of knowledge work, are also among the best positioned to understand the skills that tomorrow’s workers will need. Although many such companies are already using their large, established training organizations to directly prepare some of their customers and their partners’ employees, a growing number are going much further.

They are forming increasingly innovative partnerships with universities (and to a lesser extent, all types and levels of schools) to help foster the educating of next-generation employees. Schools, including some that traditionally shunned such collaboration as an infringement on their academic integrity, are increasingly welcoming this help as a means of better preparing their graduates for jobs in one of the most challenging job markets in memory.

These types of partnerships, which can include access to free or low-cost hardware and software, help in designing curricula, courses and Internet-based delivery systems and joint research, are beginning to yield some big benefits to the companies and schools alike. In the end, however, students are probably the biggest beneficiaries.

We are, however, only early in to the second generation of such partnerships. The real benefits—to IT companies, schools, students and to the IT companies’ customers and communities—are still around the corner. So, as discussed in some of our recent articles and reports, some vendors and some universities are already beginning to reap some big strategic and financial dividends from their initial partnerships.

Posted in 21st Century Careers, Business Trends, Corporate Social Responsibility, Creating the 21st Century Workforce, Economic and Political Forces, Economic Forces, Education System and Institutions, Globalization, Immigration and Offshoring, Innovation/Entrepeneur, IT Industry and Companies, IT Industry Role in Education, IT Industry Trends, IT Industry's Role, Job and Career Opportunities, K-12, Skills Requirements, Societal Forces, STEM Careers, Technology's Impact on Job Skills, Workforce Trends | No Responses »
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Preparing for “Hysteresis” *

Sunday, November 8th, 2009

(*from the Greek “husteros”, which means “late”)

I thought that I fully appreciated the nation’s employment crisis. My thirty year career in the IT industry gave me a unique perspective on the types of skills that are required to drive and market innovation in next-generation industries, how new technologies continually change skills requirements, and the rapid growth in emerging country skills. I saw how these trends, particularly when combined with complementary trends—such as demographics, educational patterns and political pressures—were fundamentally transforming the types of skills that would be required for success in tomorrow’s technology-based, global knowledge economy.

Then came the Great Recession. As if the disconnect between the future needs of the U.S., and current directions wasn’t already troubling enough, the recession made things much worse. Although the nation’s skills gap continues to worsen, the country no longer has the “luxury” of focusing on the skills that would be required for tomorrow’s jobs or the requirements for developing a new-age, globally competitive economy. We must now focus on the requirements for getting people back to work today. And we must do so in an economy in which:

  • Many traditional industry segments and jobs, such as in the automotive, financial services and retail sectors, will never return;
  • Consumers will be forced to reduce spending due to a combination of unemployment, falling wages and shrunken portfolio and home values;
  • All types of spending and investments will be severely retrained by the needs for families, financial institutions, corporations and governments to “de-leverage”; and
  • Big chunks of two generations—Baby Boomers and Millennials—may be all but locked out of the market for meaningful jobs. (see my 8/3/09 blog, Is the Great Recession Creating Two Lost U.S. Generations?

This explosive combination of trends (technology, globalization, demographics, education and the impact that the Great Recession would have on long-term employment opportunities) that prompted me to focus my research and launch my blog on the challenges and requirements for developing sustainable, high-value careers in the 21st century.

But, as well as I thought I understood the new career challenges, a recent article made me realize that even I–who has continually emphasized the profound structural shifts facing the U.S. employment market–may have underestimated the real magnitude of these challenges. This article, written by Joshua Cooper Ramos, managing director of Kissinger Associates for Time Magazine, is “Jobless in America: Is Double-Digit Unemployment Here to Stay?”

The article examines, and generally validates an off-text remark made by Lawrence Summers (who was a Nobel Prize-winning employment theory economist before becoming director of Obama’s National Economic Council) at a July 2009 conference sponsored by the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

As Summers discussed, the U.S. economy appears to have passed through an inflection point. Traditional economic models failed to anticipate the pace or magnitude of recent job losses and nobody really knows what will be required to get us back to acceptable levels of unemployment—or even if we will even will be able to get back to acceptable levels. The country has already lost nearly 7 million jobs—the total number of jobs that have been created in the entire decade since 1999—and many economists expect it to take at least five years before this number of jobs will be recovered. (And this does not even begin to account for the 100,000 new jobs that must be created each month to compensate for new job entrants or the 11 million additional people that are currently underemployed, either working fewer hours than they would like or are too discourages to even look for work.)

Summers, it seems, anticipated and coined a term for this type of structural dislocation back in 1986. He called it “hysteresis”—what happens when something snaps in such a way that it can never be put back together—like a light bulb which has been shattered by being dropped on the floor.

Traditional job creation measures cannot rally address these problems. Sure, the government can create temporary jobs—at least until political pressure and the ballooning budget deficit prevent it from funding these make-work jobs. New jobs, such as those in retail and hospitality may fund minimum lifestyles, but won’t create the types of skills required for tomorrow’s high-value jobs. Even growth segments, like nursing and education, will do little or nothing to ensure global competitiveness or generate the foreign exchange required to pay for the nation’s habits.

We already understand many of the types of jobs that will not return to the U.S. as the economy improves, but what type jobs that will take their place? Biotech, GreenTech, NanoTech? Perhaps, someday, but nobody knows for sure.

What should students and disaffected workers do in the interim? I hate to repeat myself, but I will stick with the recommendations I made in two recent blogs:

Posted in 21st Century Careers, Creating the 21st Century Workforce, Economic and Political Forces, Economic Forces, Job and Career Opportunities, Political Forces, Societal Forces, Workforce Trends | No Responses »
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Technology Vendors’ Roles in Addressing the College Conundrum

Sunday, October 4th, 2009

My September 27 blog, Leveraging University Education into Careers for the New Economy, suggested how college students can structure or supplement their coursework to make them more attractive to potential employers. Many of these approaches, such as selecting appropriate majors and minors, independent study programs and thesis topics and developing strong social networking competencies, are generally within students’ own control. (Even these approaches, however, are dependent on the college/universities’ ability to fund these classes—a condition that can no longer be assumed.)

However, while many of the requirements for creating university experiences that will better prepare students for the knowledge jobs of the future are within the control of students, many others will depend on proactive efforts by the colleges. These include:

  • The teaching of math, statistics and the use of IT tools as core academic offerings and the deep integration of these tools into all coursework;
  • An increasingly interdisciplinary design and delivery of courses; and
  • Availability of proactive career counseling to help students identify career options, career pathways and the types of work that will best prepare students for opportunities in their chosen fields.

Unfortunately, many of these changes are totally antithetical to many universities’ organizational structures and cultures. For example, as I discussed in my previous blog, most universities are organized in discrete stovepipes that implicitly discourage cross-disciplinary collaboration. Professors, meanwhile, are typically hired and rewarded on the basis of their depth of knowledge in their particular specialty (rather than as interdisciplinary thinkers) and many consciously shun practical applications of their work and involvement of corporations in tuning curricula. On the other hand, most university career centers are culturally attuned to these objectives. However, they often lack the number of career counselors and the degree of interaction with the companies most likely to hire their graduates.

What’s a university to do? How can it overcome the inherent challenges of culture, tenure and a lack of resources to provide their students with the help required to prepare them for the careers of the future?

One approach is for universities to actively solicit the help of corporations that are in a position to hire graduates. Many corporations already have large, well established and very active university relationship programs. Some, such as JP Morgan Chase and Wal-Mart, help universities (Syracuse University http://globaltech.syr.edu/ and the Universities of Arkansas and Arizona respectively http://sustainability.uark.edu/15347.php) develop and fund programs under which the university creates and teaches courses and conducts research that are aligned to the company’s needs, and the companies provides internships and job opportunities for selected graduates.

But while all type of companies in virtually every industry offer programs to help universities prepare students for new jobs, as explained in my September 5 blog, The IT Vendor’s Employee Readiness Burden, I believe that IT vendors are particularly well suited to help. Why? Through their products and practices, these vendors are playing disproportionately large roles in shaping the environments in which tomorrow’s graduates will work. These vendors, for example, are developing the technologies that will redefine the nature of knowledge work and pioneering practices, such as globalization and seamless collaboration that will determine the type of students who will be best suited for different types of work. Just as importantly, IT vendors will also have some of the first and greatest needs for graduates with these new skills.

I recently wrote a report (IBM’s Role in Creating the Workforce of the Future) which talks about how IT vendors are helping universities in a myriad of ways. I’ll also continue to follow this topic in future blogs.

Posted in 21st Century Careers, Business Trends, Corporate Social Responsibility, Creating the 21st Century Workforce, Economic and Political Forces, Economic Forces, Education System and Institutions, Global Forces-General, IT Company Strategies, IT Industry and Companies, IT Industry Role in Education, Job and Career Opportunities, Skills Requirements, STEM Careers, Technology's Impact on Job Skills, Universities and Grad Schools, Workforce Trends | No Responses »
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How IT Services Providers Can Help Clients Address the Coming IT Skills Gaps

Saturday, September 5th, 2009

The growth of the IT industry has depended on broad availability to people with IT skills-people to work both at IT vendor and customer organizations. Although it may be tempting to scoff at the emergence of a skills gap during a period characterized by a combination of recession (when companies are being forced to lay off and defer the hiring of qualified people) and globalization (with a huge growth of IT skills in India, China and dozens of other emerging countries), three fundamental trends will combine to jeopardize the availability of the type of skills that will be required to allow developed country companies (especially U.S., Western Europe and Japan-regions on which IT vendors still demand for the vast majority of their revenues and profits) to effectively apply IT to addressing the business needs of their companies. These trends are:

  1. Demographics, a combination of a dearth of Gen X and Y’ers to replace retiring baby boomers, insufficient transition planning by many companies, and simultaneous declines in both the percentage of young adults graduating from colleges and, especially, those majoring in IT or other technical curricula.
  2. Globalization, whereby the rapid growth of offshore labor supplies and skills (and the pressures this will impose on developed country entry jobs and salaries) will initially reduce both the attractiveness of IT careers and, longer term, jeopardize the development of the type of higher-level skills that developed countries will need to mange their own environments and, most importantly, effectively apply IT to their company’s business needs.
  3. Industrialization/Automation, in which lower-level entry tasks (those that are instrumental in helping people learn the foundation skills that are necessary to learn higher-level skills) will increasingly be instantiated into software.

At first glance, it may appear that the combination of 2 and 3 will address the shortfalls created by 1. Moreover, the combination of all three of these trends could very well result in IT organizations that are much more cost-efficient -and effective-than are traditional organizations.

But while the globalization and Industrialization of IT work will certainly reduce the demand for IT-trained “bodies” in the U.S., it will simultaneously reduce the supply of people trained to provide the types of high-level skills that are required to:

  • Architect and manage sophisticated projects and, most importantly, those that best understand how to
  • Apply IT as a tool to address business needs and achieve strategic advantage.

From where will such skills come? True, offshore sources may well produce many of the architectural and managerial skills required to offset a dearth of developed country skills. Although companies may prefer to retain these and other high-level IT skills onshore, many can probably make do with offshore talent. And since few end user organizations are likely to have the scale or the best practices required to build, staff and manage world-class offshore IT organizations, they may even be able to justify outsourcing these functions to third-party providers.

But what about that mix of deep business process, IT architectural and business strategy skills, combined with the type of corporate cultural sensitivity, that is required to identify and sell the need for, and align the types of organizational resources required to drive such projects to fruition? Such capabilities cannot be offshored, much less outsourced. How will developed countries in general, and individual companies in particular, recruit, develop, nurture, manage and retain such skills? Even more fundamentally, what type of skills should companies look for in people who can grow into these roles, where are such skills being taught, what career paths are most effective in developing these skills and what cultures are required to develop skills into talents?

True, the “mere tasks” of increasing college graduation rates, the percentage of students who major in IT and related disciplines and the quality of the educations these students receive, may well increase the pool of raw materials from which such talent may be developed. But the use of such blunt instruments to increase the genetic probabilities of creating the new generation of such talent is not an effective or efficient means of developing these skills. This is particularly true given a probable decline in the number of entry jobs from which such students can percolate to the top.

Neither the country, nor individual companies need huge numbers of raw skills-they need a totally new approach to selective breeding on the type of talent that will be required for the skills that businesses really need to be competitive in the future. They need entirely new types of education, entirely new career paths and entirely new ways of looking at the type of value that IT must provide in a more global knowledge-based economy. 

Since IT vendors in general, and IT service providers in particular, are playing such key roles in driving the  globalization and industrialization/automation tends, they are best positioned to determine the ways in which these trends will redefine the needs for next-generation IT skills. And since they have so much to gain from the availability of such skills-and so much to lose from death of these skills-they have huge incentives to help create them.  Some, as I will discuss in future reports, are already working to define and help universities create the foundation for these new skills.

Posted in 21st Century Careers, Business Trends, Corporate Social Responsibility, Creating the 21st Century Workforce, Economic and Political Forces, Economic Forces, Education System and Institutions, Global Forces-General, Globalization, Immigration and Offshoring, IT Industry and Companies, IT Industry Role in Education, IT Industry Trends, IT Industry's Role, IT/Business Consulting/Outsourcing, Job and Career Opportunities, Skills Requirements, Societal Forces, STEM Careers, Technology's Impact on Job Skills, Workforce Trends | 1 Response »
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